The outlook changed in October 2026. Here is what the newest forecasts actually say.
Prepared October 2026 by Blair Allen, Utah Digs — built entirely from named, dated sources: the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Zillow Research. Every figure on this page carries its source.
THE HEADLINE
Higher rates, flat prices, no crash in sight
Three numbers tell the 2027 story:
0%2027 mortgage rate forecast
Fannie Mae's October 2026 forecast: 7.5% in every quarter of 2027. The MBA agrees rates stay above 7% all year.
0% to +2%2027 home-price growth range
National forecasts for 2027 cluster between flat and +0.6%, with one expert panel at +2.2%. No credible source forecasts a crash.
$0Utah median price today
Median sale price, all housing types, Q1 2026 — still the 10th most expensive state in the country. (Gardner Institute)
What changed: on September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in over three years, September inflation came in hot at 3.7%, and the 10-year Treasury climbed to about 5.3%. Forecasts written earlier in 2026 — the ones calling for rates easing toward 6% — have been superseded. The October editions are what this page uses.
MORTGAGE RATES
Rates: higher for longer is now the consensus
This is the single biggest change from earlier in 2026. Fannie Mae's own forecast for 2027 moved from 6.7% (September edition) to 7.5% (October edition) — a 0.8-point jump in one month.
Forecaster
Q4 2026
2027
Fannie Mae (Oct 12, 2026)
7.4%
7.5% in every quarter
Mortgage Bankers Assoc. (Oct 11, 2026)
7.3%
Above 7% all year
Freddie Mac
Publishes no 2027 forecast. Its weekly survey rate is 7.40% (Oct 15, 2026) — up from 6.27% a year ago, and the highest since November 2023.
The rate path in one picture
Actual — Freddie Mac PMMSFannie Mae ESR forecast (Oct 2026)MBA — Q4 2026 dot at 7.3%; 2027 drawn as its “above 7%” floor
Anchored only to figures cited on this page: Freddie Mac PMMS 6.27% a year before October 2026 and 7.40% on Oct 15, 2026; Fannie Mae ESR (Oct 12, 2026) — 7.4% for Q4 2026 and 7.5% in every quarter of 2027; MBA (Oct 11, 2026) — 7.3% for Q4 2026 and “above 7%” all of 2027. The MBA published no single 2027 point, so it is drawn as a floor, not a line. The curve between the two actual survey points is a stylized connector — this page does not publish a monthly rate history, and none is drawn.
One caveat, in Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher's words: after a rise this fast, "it's not out of the question that rates will decline as rapidly as they rose." Treat that as the upside scenario — it is not any forecaster's current call.
What a 7.5% world does to a payment
$0per month — principal & interest only
Illustration only, not a quote or lending offer. Excludes taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and PMI.
Monthly payment at each scenario rateSame price, down payment, and term as the estimator above — principal & interest only
Prices: flat to slightly up — and the forecasters disagree on how much
National forecasts for 2027 home-price growth, most recent first:
Zillow (Jul 2026)+0.0%
Fannie Mae (Oct 2026)+0.6%
Expert panel (Aug 2026)+2.2%
Zillow: ZHVI growth, June 2026 → June 2027. Fannie Mae: HPI growth, Q4 2026 → Q4 2027. Expert panel: Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey — note it was fielded August 5–14, before the September rate spike, which is the main reason it sits above the other two.
The three forecasts, to scale
The same three national 2027 forecasts listed above, drawn to one common 0–3% scale. The expert panel’s +2.2% carries the same flag as the note above: the panel was fielded August 5–14, 2026, before the September rate spike.
Where Utah stands now
$520,000 — Utah's median sale price, all housing types, Q1 2026 (up from $500,000 a year earlier). Median single-family: $559,900, +1.8%. Utah is the 10th most expensive state. (Gardner Institute, Sept 2026)
$560,853 — Salt Lake City metro typical home value (Zillow ZHVI), +0.5% year over year. (Zillow, Sept 2026)
$645,000 — Salt Lake County's median single-family price in Q2 2026, a record. (Salt Lake Board of Realtors)
Gardner's Dejan Eskic sums up the current phase: Utah's market "has entered a period of more stable price growth — but stability should not be mistaken for affordability."
Our read for Utah in 2027
Flat to low-single-digit price growth. No credible source forecasts a Utah crash — and, in the interest of straight talk: the Gardner Institute has not published a 2027 Utah forecast. Its January 2026 Salt Lake forecast covered 2026 only, and called the county "running in place." Anyone quoting you a precise Utah 2027 percentage is inventing it. What exists is the national range above, Utah's flat-to-modest trajectory, and a 7.5% rate path — this page's read is built from those, and it gets refreshed when Gardner's next forecast lands.
National sales barely improve: Fannie Mae projects total U.S. home sales of 4.67M in 2026 rising to 4.71M in 2027 — +0.9%. Stabilization, not a rebound.
Utah sold 39,628 homes in 2025 (+3.3% vs. 2024), but homes are taking longer to sell: average days on market reached 43 days in early 2026, up from 38 in 2024. (Gardner Institute)
Supply is still below balance: Utah sat at about 4.5 months of supply in mid-2026 (Utah Association of Realtors), while Salt Lake metro for-sale inventory was already +8.9% year over year in September 2026 — loosening faster than the U.S. as a whole (+2.5%). (Zillow)
The lock-in effect persists: over 61% of Utah mortgage holders pay less than 4%(James Wood, Gardner Institute). At 7.5% market rates, most owners have little financial reason to move — the structural reason listings stay scarce even as inventory inches up.
The plain-English version: 2027 looks more balanced than the frenzy years — more choice and more negotiating room than 2021–22 — but still tight. Loosening is not the same as loose.
Sources: Fannie Mae, Housing Forecast: October 2026; Gardner Institute, State of the State's Housing Market (Sept 2026); Zillow September Market Report (Oct 6, 2026); UAR data, May 2026.
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Building: apartments surged, single-family slipped — and 2027 supply is already set
26,053 homes permitted in Utah in 2025 — a rebound from 21,966 in 2024. But the mix shifted: single-family permits fell to 9,983, back to mid-2013 levels, while apartment permits jumped to 9,280. Salt Lake and Utah counties together took 54.7% of all permits. (Gardner Institute)
That apartment surge doesn't help 2027: apartment projects typically take 3+ years from permit to move-in, so most 2025 permits reach the market in 2028–29. Meanwhile the pipeline is already narrowing — Salt Lake-area apartments under construction fell 28% year over year by mid-2026. (Rental Housing Association of Utah; MMG)
Nationally, starts edge down: Fannie Mae projects U.S. housing starts of 1.30M in 2027, down 2.9% from 2026.
The long-term math hasn't changed: Utah's population passes 4 million by 2035, requiring roughly 280,000 additional homes — about 28,000 a year — just to keep up. 2025's permits roughly matched one year of need, but tilted toward apartments while for-sale single-family building shrank. (Gardner Institute)
Sources: Gardner Institute, State of the State's Housing Market: 2025–2026, Table 4 (Sept 2026); RHA of Utah (May 2026); Fannie Mae, October 2026.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
If you're buying or selling in 2027
Buying
Waiting for 6% rates means betting against both Fannie Mae's and the MBA's current forecasts — plan on ~7.5% and treat anything lower as a bonus. The offset: flat prices, rising inventory, and more negotiating room than the frenzy years — in September 2026, 27.4% of U.S. listings had taken a price cut (Zillow). If rates do fall faster than forecast, expect competition to return just as fast; being fully pre-approved is what lets you move either way.
Selling
A flat-price market with 43-day average marketing times rewards the fundamentals: accurate pricing from day one, condition, and presentation. The 2021 playbook — overprice and let a bidding war fix it — fights everything in the current data. And if you're also buying, remember the lock-in runs both ways: your sub-4% rate is an asset, and the math of giving it up belongs in the decision from the start.
Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15, 2026 — current 30-year fixed rate, 7.40%. (Freddie Mac publishes no 2027 forecast.)
James Wood / Gardner Institute, Salt Lake County housing forecast for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, January 2026 (2026 only) — via Building Salt Lake.
Utah Association of Realtors data (months of supply, May 2026); Salt Lake Board of Realtors (Q2 2026 county medians).
A note on precision: Zillow does not publish an exact Salt Lake metro forecast percentage in its public releases, so this page uses Zillow's national forecast and its published Salt Lake actuals rather than a number we couldn't verify. Fannie Mae and the MBA update monthly, and Gardner's next Salt Lake forecast is expected in January 2027 — this page will be refreshed as new editions land.
Thinking about a 2027 move?
Forecasts set the weather; your timing, equity, and plans set the decision. If you want this outlook translated to your home or your search, reach out — the consultation is a working session, not a sales pitch.